Practical Action Nepal has launched a new report that establishes rainfall intensity-duration thresholds to help determine the probability of landslides at a local scale—an important step towards improving landslide prediction in the Helambu-Panchpokhari region.
The research for the report involved collecting and analysing historical landslide inventory data spanning multiple years to identify trends and patterns of landslides occurrences. The correlation between rainfall intensity, and duration with landslide occurrences was examined to determine the rainfall thresholds. To ensure the reliability of these thresholds, validation was carried out using real-time and past rainfall events, strengthening their predictive capability.
Along with conducting the study, Practical Action also facilitated in integrating these thresholds into the regular forecasting system of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal. This will allow for the prompt and effective transmission of landslide warnings, decreasing the impact of such disasters on local communities.
“This report is an effort to reduce loss of lives, and damages of important assets or properties through the establishment and effective operation of the Landslide Early Warning System in Panchpokhari Thangpal and Helambu Rural Municipalities. By establishing locally relevant rainfall thresholds and supporting their incorporation into the forecasting system of the DHM, we are taking a meaningful step towards making landslide-prone communities safer,” said Pooja Sharma, Country Director of Practical Action in Nepal.
It is certain that these thresholds will enhance the precision of landslide predictions, enabling timely alerts to be issued to communities at risk.