South Asia Disaster Report Special Copenhagen Issue A Hot-Spot About to Become Hotter A South Asian perspective on Climate Change and increased Disaster Risk Please consider the environment before printing this document South Asia Disaster Report Special Copenhagen Issue 1 Author: Tharuka Dissanaike Editors: Vishaka Hidellage, Buddika Hapuarachchi, Ramona Miranda, Jon Ensor and Daniel Vorbach Cover layout and graphics: Krishan Jayatunge www.practicalaction.org http://climatevision.janathakshan.net 2 South Asia Disaster Report Special Copenhagen Issue Contents How Global Warming Will Affect an Already Volatile Disaster Climate in South Asia Climate Change: Amplifying Disaster Risk New Threats and Increased Exposure Poverty and Growth Communities at the Frontlines Adaptation: Who Will Foot the Bill? Mitigation: Obligation or Threat to Human Development? A Selection of Technologies for Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction South Asia: Urgent Response and Long Term Promise For Regional Policy Makers - A Time to Rethink About Us 4 6 7 8 10 13 15 16 17 18 19 Abbreviations CDM: GAR: GEF: GLOF: IPCC: LDCF: NAPA: SADR: SIDS: UNFCCC: UNISDR: Clean Development Mechanism Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction of UNISDR Global Environmental Facility Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Least Developed Country Fund National Adaptation Programme of Action South Asia Disaster Report Small Island Developing State United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction South Asia Disaster Report Special Copenhagen Issue 3 How Global Warming Will Affect an Already Volatile Disaster Climate in South Asia Natural hazards are no strangers to a majority of South Asians. The region is periodically afflicted by inundated deltas, parched plains, flooded urban sprawl, severe droughts, cyclone-hit crops and eroding beaches and riverbanks. South Asia experiences every conceivable weather related disaster. The region is also a melting pot of poverty, wars, accidents and other natural and man-made hazards that leave the lives, homes and livelihoods of many of its two billion people regularly at risk. Climate change is now adding significant additional risks to this already volatile disaster situation. The signs are everywhere - in the retreating Himalayan glaciers, the sinking coral islands of the Maldives and drought-devastated farming lands across the Indian sub-continent. Climate change, born of warming land, sea and atmosphere, is primed to exacerbate current trends in floods, droughts and cyclones and introduce new, hitherto unknown challenges to the development paths of every country in the region. 1 South Asia recorded 128 natural disaster events between 2006 and 2008. 93% of these were of hydro-meteorological origin. 86 incidences of flooding were reported, with nearly 8000 lives lost. India had by far the highest number of disaster events, but flooding in Bangladesh claimed most lives. South Asia Disaster Report 20081 frequency and intensity of tropical storms. Sadly the impacts of such climatic variability will be felt most in developing countries. South Asia, already highly susceptible to natural disasters, is primed to suffer disproportionately as the atmosphere heats up. Climate and weather-related disasters already affect croplands, livestock, homes and assets, food security and access to services, transport and communication. It reduces economic opportunity and increases poverty. Poor women and men bear the brunt of natural disasters and stand at the frontline of climate change. Women in poor communities are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. Limited access to resources and decision-making processes prevents many women in the region to use their knowledge and experience to respond effectively to the impacts of climate change. Increasing scarcity of water and reductions in biomass and crops puts further pressure on women, as securing water, food and energy for cooking and heating are largely deemed to be women’s responsibilities. Past experience has also shown that poor women tend to be disproportionately affected by natural disasters. Climate change adaptation needs to be gender responsive to address these issues and recognise women’s expertise in adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies. South Asians have contributed comparatively little to the total amount of climate change causing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. The main responsibility for climate change falls on the industrialised North where oil and coal-driven economies and luxury living has led to very high per capita emissions. Poverty and low human development has kept down consumption in South Asia. The region is also home to a significant amount of carbon sinks in its forests. South Asians, in countries with negligible carbon footprints, have unwittingly given up their carbon space to the over-consuming developed world. Rich countries in the North owe the world a huge carbon debt to pay for the impacts of their unmitigated emissions for many decades. In 2007, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change confirmed in its Fourth Assessment Report that geographic distribution, frequency and intensity of regular hazards such as tropical storms, floods and droughts have already significantly increased as a result of climate change. Changes are evident in the amount, intensity, frequency and type of precipitation, which increases the area affected by drought, increases number of floods and the 1 Duryog Nivaran & Practical Action, South Asia Disaster Report 2008, Available at: www.duryognivaran.org 4 South Asia Disaster Report Special Copenhagen Issue Although current per capita emission rates remain low, South Asian economies are growing rapidly, following the same development recipe that created the problem of climate change in the first place. This could well mean that future overall emissions from these countries, especially India, could rise significantly. Climate change mitigation is therefore a challenge for South Asia as well as for the developed North. The region needs to ensure that over half a billion poor people achieve satisfactory levels of human development without choking up an already fragile atmosphere with ever-increasing emissions. For communities already facing the brunt of these changes, adaptation to climate change is no longer purely of academic interest. In countries like the Maldives global climate change mitigation is a matter of survival. Adaptation options for low lying islands to rising sea levels are extremely limited. Other countries need to assign greater priority within their national planning processes to dealing with the underlying conditions that place certain people at greater risk of natural disasters. Climate variability and its affect on natural hazards leads to recognisable risks that policy makers must take seriously in their long-term development plans. If these escalating risks are ignored in national planning, much of the investment in poverty alleviation and human development to date could be washed away in the stormy waters of climate change. South Asia is a region where most countries have already spelt out their adaptation needs and their capacity to absorb technology to support these. Many countries in the region are also taking a serious view of reducing disaster risk and some countries including Bangladesh, India and the Maldives have assigned the subject to important frontline ministries. South Asia is well placed to move to an environmentally sustainable development path. The recipe for sustainable living and low consumption that is now advocated in the North as a new solution for climate change mitigation has been part of the cultural and religious norms of many communities in the region. An alternative, low-carbon development path is therefore not alien to the region. South Asia can lead the way and demonstrate to the world how positive action could strengthen community resilience, improve human development and support communities to adapt to future climatic uncertainty. The region represents a mixture of political and economic scenarios as it included least developed, middle income and fast industrialising countries like India. Due to its geographic diversity, South Asia is affected by all the problems, risks and challenges of dealing with an uncertain climatic future. If South Asian countries are adequately supported to demonstrate climate change adaptation, low-carbon development and innovative technology to suit local conditions, the region could be an example to the rest of the world. Instead of following in the polluting footsteps of the North, South Asia has the opportunity to rethink its development path and consumption patterns and question the dominant measure of GDP growth as the only indicator of success. The region could pilot policies that favour environmentally sustainable lifestyles, equitable distribution of the essentials for long and fulfilling lives and, ultimately, the well being and happiness of its women and men.2 On the other hand, if South Asia fails to adapt and adopt an alternate development trajectory, it might spell doom for a world trying to deal with climate change. 2 Bhutan and Sri Lanka have begun to define growth and development in alternate terms. Bhutan has developed a measurement for gross national happiness while Sri Lanka offers a different perspective of human development that takes natural resources and their conservation into consideration. South Asia Disaster Report Special Copenhagen Issue 5
